SHFE Tin Fluctuates Rangebound Awaiting Fed Decision, LME Tin Under Pressure Adjusting Amid Weak Supply and Demand [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On September 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, down 200 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The intraday price fluctuated within a range of 271,370-274,530 yuan/mt, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of the US Fed's interest rate meeting. Meanwhile, LME tin was quoted at $34,650/mt, down $30 or 0.09%, with the intraday fluctuation narrowing to $215, reflecting a wait-and-see stance in the international market as well.

From a macro perspective, market focus is centered on the upcoming US Fed interest rate decision to be announced in the evening. Although expectations for an interest rate cut continue to build, risk-off sentiment has intensified ahead of the decision, leading to capital outflows from commodity markets and exerting short-term pressure on tin prices. The US dollar index rebounded to the 94.5 level, further suppressing the valuation of dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. In addition, weak Chinese real estate data and concerns over global manufacturing demand have heightened market uncertainty.

In the short term, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound. If the US Fed cuts interest rates, improved liquidity expectations may drive SHFE tin to test the upper end of the range at 275,000 yuan/mt; if peak demand season fails to materialize, prices may come under pressure and pull back to around 271,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level at $34,500/mt, as well as the long-term impact of production resumptions in Myanmar and the recovery pace of the semiconductor industry on the global supply-demand balance.